The increase in electricity and gas tariffs will contribute an additional 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points to inflation.

In the basic electricity tariff (up to 200 kWh per month), there will be an increase of 33.3% — from 450 to 600 sums, while the price of gas will rise from 650 to 1000 sums (+53.8%).

In response to a question about the possibility of increasing the basic rate, Nurmuratov noted that it will depend on the inflationary environment. For the Central Bank, the key factor is the change in core inflation and prices for 30 essential consumer goods. Thus, despite the overall inflation rate of 10.5%, core inflation has risen by 1.1 percentage points in the last quarter, reaching 7.1%.

Initially, the contribution of the rise in gas and electricity tariffs to inflation was estimated at 2.4 percentage points; however, the actual impact was 3.9 percentage points, which is lower than the projected 4.2 percentage points.

The Central Bank has recently revised its economic development scenarios until 2027 and has again postponed achieving the inflation target of 5%.

The main scenario assumes that this target will be reached in the second half of 2026, while the alternative scenario predicts it will be achieved in early 2027.