In November, the inflation rate anticipated by Uzbeks saw a sharp increase, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank.
The average forecast for price growth over the next 12 months reached 13.7%, up nearly one percentage point from the previous month, marking the highest level since May. The median figure showed a more modest increase to 11.1% (+0.2%).
Tashkent topped the list again with inflation expectations of 17.7%, followed by Tashkent and Syrdarya regions at 14.8%. The most optimistic forecasts were found in Navoi (11%), Andijan (11.7%), and Jizzakh regions (11.9%).
By occupation, the highest inflation forecasts were noted among workers in the industrial and public sectors (15.1%), as well as in construction (14.9%). The lowest expectations were in the area of household services (11.2%), catering, and among students (11.9%).
Respondents with higher incomes predict a higher inflation rate: in the group with incomes of 15 million sums per month, the forecast is 17.3%, while for those earning between 10-15 million sums, it stands at 16.5%.
In contrast, the forecasts remain above average in the group with 2-3 million sums (14.3%). The lowest expectations are among citizens earning 4-5 million sums (12.4%) and those with less than 2 million sums (13.1%).
The main factors influencing the forecasts remain currency fluctuations, rising utility tariffs, and energy prices (51%). Less frequently mentioned were transportation costs (30%), salary increases (28%), and rising food prices (26%).
Inflation expectations among entrepreneurs grew at a slower rate than among the general public. However, the average level also reached a spring maximum of 12.7% (+0.7%), with a median of 10.7%.
The highest forecasts were recorded in Navoi region (14.7%) and Tashkent (14.6%). The lowest expectations were in Karakalpakstan (11.2%), Kashkadarya (11.8%), and Fergana (11.9%).
The education sector ranked first in expectations (14.9%), followed by construction (14.3%) and culture (13.5%). The lowest figures were noted among artisans (11.1%), the tourism sector (11.6%), and the transportation industry (11.9%).
The dynamics of the currency exchange rate ranked first among the factors affecting forecasts (51%), followed by utility tariffs (49%) and fuel prices (48%). Additionally, an increase in transportation costs was noted more frequently (32%).
Previously, Spot reported that Uzbekistan's international reserves decreased for the first time since March.