The situation is challenging, but the currency is stabilizing.

This is unusual because the som has a significant correlation with the Russian ruble, which has been rapidly appreciating since the beginning of the year. Its strengthening accelerated precisely from January. Initially, the surplus of foreign currency supply over demand favored the ruble, followed by the tax period, and then geopolitical positivity.

Currently, the som is not "catching" the overall trend, which appears strange.

Over the course of 2024, the som has only depreciated against the USD by 4%, and compared to the two previous years, the pace of devaluation has slowed down.

In the near future, the dollar/som pair is expected to remain within the range of 12,970-13,000 soms.

Anna Bodrova, Alpari analyst