The Central Bank reports a significant rise in the share of microloans within the overall banking system's credit portfolio.

It is noted that the level of risk premium formation in Uzbekistan remains relatively low compared to the historical average, and there is a softening of financial conditions due to positive changes in the banking sector. A decline in the financial stress index has been recorded within the banking system.

The increase in the share of highly liquid assets within the total assets of banks and the decrease in unstable financing levels among liabilities indicate reduced concerns regarding liquidity vulnerabilities in banks.

Due to the tightening of macroprudential policy, the annual growth rate of auto loans issued to individuals has slowed down.

Since 2022, there has been an overvaluation of housing market prices and an imbalance between supply and demand in the real estate market, confirming that housing prices remain above their fundamental value. Additionally, housing pricing is influenced by non-fundamental factors.

Concerns persist regarding the population's ability to meet its debt obligations. Survey results aimed at assessing the level of debt burden indicate that the average debt burden among respondents who received loans from banks stands at 73%, considering non-bank obligations.

The debt burden level for mortgage loans issued to individuals has remained virtually unchanged, at around 40–45%.

There are rising concerns about high activity in the microcredit sector. The share of microloans in the overall loan portfolio of the banking system has sharply increased. As of July 1, 2024, the volume of microloans has grown by 77% compared to the same period in 2023.

In the baseline scenario of the macro stress test, no serious concerns were identified regarding the solvency of the banking system. However, the stress test results indicate that in a risk scenario, there may be a breach of minimum regulatory requirements in some banks in the medium term.

In the baseline scenario of the macro stress test for liquidity, banks are not expected to face liquidity issues in the short term; however, in a risk scenario, a negative balance of net cash inflows may arise in several banks.

High costs of external financing, the risk of secondary sanctions for participants in Uzbekistan's financial and non-financial sectors, as well as threats related to climate change, are considered external risks to the country's financial system.

In turn, the ongoing overvaluation of housing prices, high growth rates in microcredit, and increasing cyber threats are viewed as internal risks.