The Central Bank of Uzbekistan does not rule out a worsening trade balance due to the influence of the US and China.

The escalation of the trade war between the United States and China could worsen Uzbekistan's trade balance deficit, stated Otabek Tozhiddinov, the director of the Currency Regulation and Balance of Payments Department at the Central Bank, on February 12.

https://uzdaily.uz/ru/tsb-uzbekistana-ne-iskliuchaet-ukhudsheniia-torgovogo-balansa-iz-za-ssha-i-kitaia/2025-02-14 08:47:54

Tozhiddinov reminded that a similar situation occurred during Donald Trump's first presidential term. In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese aluminum and steel, prompting Beijing to retaliate with tariffs on American goods.

“In 2019, Uzbekistan's exports to China decreased by 22%, while imports rose by 34%. This confirms that when the U.S. market faces restrictions, China begins to seek alternative markets, one of which is Uzbekistan. As a result, the trade balance deficit may increase,” he explained.

At the same time, the expansion of Chinese imports into Uzbekistan and Central Asian countries may foster the development of the transportation and logistics sector, which could partially offset the negative consequences.

Tozhiddinov added that the Central Bank has not yet conducted a detailed analysis of the potential impact of the new wave of trade war between the U.S. and China. According to him, it will not be possible to assess the real consequences until at least one quarter has passed.