After the victory of the Uzbekistan national team against the United Arab Emirates in the 4th round (1:0), the likelihood of obtaining a direct ticket from Group A to the World Cup 2026 has increased to 93.1%, meaning the chance has risen by more than 10%. In this regard, our national team ranks 4th after Japan, Iran, and South Korea among contenders for a direct spot in the World Cup.
It is worth noting that after Uzbekistan's draw (0:0) with Iran in the 3rd round, the probability of their direct advancement from Group A to the World Cup 2026 grew from 75.9% to 82.8%. Following the victory over Kyrgyzstan (3:2) in the 2nd round, Uzbekistan's chances increased from 70.3% to 75.9%, while the likelihood of not qualifying for the World Cup 2026 decreased from 1% to 0.4%.
Among Group A teams, Iran has the highest chances of qualifying directly for the World Cup 2026 at 99.6%. The Iranian team's chances increased by one and a half percent after the previous round—from 98% to 99.6%.
Uzbekistan's opponent in the 5th round, Qatar, significantly reduced their chances after losing to Iran in the 4th round (1:4) and dropped out of the top 10 contenders.
The chances of Asian teams for the World Cup 2026 after the 4th round (according to We Global Football):
1. Japan – 99.99% (after the 3rd round – it was 99.9%)
2. Iran – 99.6% (98.0%)
3. South Korea – 99.5% (97.5%)
4. Uzbekistan – 93.1% (82.8%)
5. Australia – 75.1% (57.8%)
6. Iraq – 53.4% (61.5%)
7. Jordan – 41.6% (29.0%)
8. Saudi Arabia – 16.7% (31.2%)
9. Bahrain – 7.9% (10.6%)
10. Oman – 5.4% (9.4%).
For your information, in the upcoming rounds, Uzbekistan will play in Qatar on November 14 and against North Korea in Laos on November 19. It is expected that the head coach of our team, Slovenian Srečko Katanec, who is currently undergoing treatment, will participate in these matches.
It is important to note that Asia has been allocated 8.5 spots for the World Cup 2026. If 2 teams from three groups qualify directly, the teams finishing in 3rd and 4th places in the groups will compete for the remaining 2.5 spots through playoffs.
Uzbekistan leads Group A with 10 points, alongside Iran. The World Cup will take place from June 11 to July 19, 2026, across 16 cities in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.