After Uzbekistan's victory over the United Arab Emirates in the 4th round (1:0), the chances of securing a direct spot from Group A to the World Cup 2026 increased to 93.1%. However, following their defeat to Qatar, the chances for Srečko Katanec's team dropped from 93.1% to 84.8%. After defeating North Korea (1:0), the statistical portal raised Uzbekistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup to 86.7%.
Among Asian contenders for a direct spot in the World Cup, our national team currently ranks 4th after Japan, Iran, and South Korea.
It is worth noting that after Uzbekistan drew with Iran (0:0) in the 3rd round, the probability of advancing directly from Group A to the World Cup 2026 increased from 75.9% to 82.8%. Following their victory over Kyrgyzstan (3:2) in the 2nd round, Uzbekistan's chances rose from 70.3% to 75.9%, while the chance of failing to qualify for the World Cup 2026 decreased from 1% to 0.4%.
Among Group A teams, Iran has the highest chances of qualifying directly for the World Cup 2026 at 99.6%. The portal from Asia believes that Japan has virtually secured a spot for the World Cup 2026 - at 100 percent.
The chances of Asian teams for the World Cup 2026 after the 6th round (interpretation by We Global Football):
1. Japan – 100% (after the 5th round – it was 99.9%)
2. Iran – 99.6% (99.4%)
3. South Korea – 99.2% (99.5%)
4. Uzbekistan – 86.7% (84.8%)
5. Australia – 79.2% (72.3%)
6. Iraq – 77.9% (44.3%)
7. Jordan – 21.4% (45%)
8. UAE – 12.6% (8.6%)
9. Saudi Arabia – 11.4% (22.9%)
10. Bahrain – 4% (2.4%)
For your information, Uzbekistan will host Kyrgyzstan in the next round on March 20 in Tashkent. Our team is currently in second place (13 points) behind the leader Iran (16) in Group A.
It is important to note that Asia has been allocated 8.5 spots for the World Cup 2026. If 2 teams from three groups qualify directly, then the remaining 2.5 spots will be contested in the playoffs by 3-4 teams from the groups.
The World Cup will take place from June 11 to July 19, 2026, across 16 cities in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.